Research paper
Mattes RD. Hunger and thirst: issues in measurement and prediction of eating and drinking. Physiology & Behavior. 2010;100(1):22-32. doi:10.1016/j.physbeh.2009.12.026
Why we cite it
A critical examination of hunger and thirst measurement that substantially complicates popular assumptions. Mattes demonstrates that hunger is a surprisingly weak predictor of actual eating behavior (r=0.48-0.66 with eating probability, explaining only 25-44% of variance), and that the commonly cited "thirst confused for hunger" claim lacks direct experimental support. His own data showed drinking augmented rather than reduced subsequent hunger. The paper's most important contribution for the project is reframing what drives eating: not primarily physiological need, but cognitive, social, and environmental factors. The finding that eating frequency (not portion size) drove the 160-241 kcal increase between 1977-78 and 1994-96 national surveys is directly relevant to understanding modern eating patterns. For companion 129's messaging about hunger confusion, this paper supports a more nuanced story: people eat for many reasons beyond hunger, and what feels like hunger is often habit, social cue, or hedonic desire — but the specific "you're probably just thirsty" advice is not well-supported.
[gen-1 verification note: The legacy citation file listed PMID 20096715, which is actually Gordis et al. 2010 (a different paper). The correct PMID is 20060847. The PMCID (PMC2849909) was correct. The legacy file also stated "People frequently misinterpret thirst as hunger" and "Drinking water before eating can help differentiate signals" — the PMC full text does NOT support these claims with experimental evidence. Mattes acknowledges the concern exists but provides no controlled studies demonstrating actual misattribution, and his own data showed drinking augmented hunger.]
DOI: 10.1016/j.physbeh.2009.12.026 · PubMed 20060847 · Publisher